Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Business Advisory Services for Aviation & Logistics
Joining the dots to provide strategic and commercial insights in aviation and logistics sectors, globally.
Insights
Tailored aviation strategies for your business.
Solutions and insights for global business and trade
Management Support and Advice
Solutions
Management Expertise
Expert Business Advisory in Aviation
JTD Advisory Ltd. specializes in aviation and logistics, providing expert business advisory services, grounded in extensive commercial and management experience. We deliver tailored solutions for clients globally.
Your Trusted Business Partner...
Navigating the Challenges of today and the future...
Based in the UK, our team combines deep industry knowledge with practical expertise to help businesses thrive in the aviation and logistics sectors, ensuring sustainable growth and operational excellence.
Our Projects
Expertise in aviation and logistics for global business solutions.
Delivering strategic solutions for aviation industry challenges and opportunities
Optimizing supply chains and go to market strategies for enhanced operational and commercial effectiveness
JTD Airfreight Intelligence Insights
Connecting cargo, capital, and trade policy every week
JTD AIRFREIGHT INTELLIGENCE
ISSUE #13 | WEEK OF 7 July 2026
David Kerr | Founder, JTD Advisory Ltd.
Air freight rates fell -5.0% last week. Jet fuel is down. The ceasefire is just holding. And not one European carrier has resumed a single Gulf route.
The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) fell -5.0% week-on-week in the week to 29 June, leaving it at +31.3% year-on-year — still above the highest levels of any recent peak season. The rate decline is real. The question is what it is pricing. The TAC commentary is clear: the move reflects the ceasefire extension and a continuing fall in jet fuel prices. That is the risk premium unwinding. It is not the structural constraint resolving.
British Airways Dubai is now suspended to 25 October. KLM Dubai extended to 23 August. EASA CZIB R14, issued 1 July, carries the same scope as every bulletin since February: Do Not Operate for Iran, Iraq, Lebanon. The France NOTAM issued 1 July runs to 26 August — the first seven-week horizon since the conflict began. The structural drivers are unchanged. What has changed is the market's pricing of the timeline.
A conversation at the Air Cargo conference in Shanghai last week captured the dynamic precisely. Buyers are holding back on fixing rates, reading the fuel decline as a signal that prices should fall. The IATA May data — CTK +6.0% year-on-year, demand outpacing capacity by the widest gap in the cycle — and the volume data from WorldACD Week 26, which confirms June global tonnages at +9% year-on-year and H1 chargeable weight at +5% year-on-year, suggest that buyers are pricing the fuel signal and not the capacity signal. In a market where those two signals diverge, the capacity signal determines whether a rate can be achieved at all.
The 60-day Hormuz transit window expires mid-August. Nuclear talks resume 11 July. Section 232 pharmaceutical tariffs take effect for large companies on 31 July. The US-China tariff cliff is 126 days away. Issue #13 of JTD Airfreight Intelligence is out today. What signal is your operation pricing for Q3?
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